Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season/Dora the Explorer
04E.DORA AOI:North of Panama :See Also: Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season#AOI:North of Panama Since this is also an AOI in the Atlantic, while it's there, refer to the link above while the system is in the Atlantic.Darren23Edits|Mail 02:48, July 14, 2011 (UTC) ::GFS, CMC, and ECMWF (somewhat) develops a small storm coming from this crossover disturbance.Darren23Edits|Mail 16:49, July 15, 2011 (UTC) ::::At 20%. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 18:01, July 16, 2011 (UTC) 94E.Invest Now an invest. This should become at least a TD, and my long rage forecast for this is to become a hurricane (maybe even an Adrian-like hurricane. '''Darren23Edits|Mail 19:59, July 16, 2011 (UTC) :Yay! 94E, once you leave land, please become a Cat 4/5! Here comes Dora the explorer. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone]20:08, July 16, 2011 (UTC) ::Enough with the name calling and wishcasting. If you can see the model guidance for this you'll know why you should stop. '''Darren23Edits|Mail 20:14, July 16, 2011 (UTC) :::Yeah, this is a Baja hurricane, possibly even reaching California at full tropical storm force. Becoming a cat 4/5 might actually be possible, adding onto the streak of hurricanes we had this year. But still, we should keep an eye on it and wait carefully whether it does become one or not. - HurricaneSpin(Talk) 20:38, July 16, 2011 (UTC) :::::Darren, calm down. Where did I say that I am forecasting the storms to become Cat 4/5? I said I want the storms to become cat 4/5. Big difference. And what's wrong about making jokes about Dora's name? YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 20:41, July 16, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Nothing. I love it. That's why I'm here. And also, another yellow circle is up. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 21:13, July 16, 2011 (UTC) :::::::Thank you, Andrew. 94E is this yellow circle with the old yellow circle being the one above. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 21:16, July 16, 2011 (UTC) :::::::You're welcome. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 21:25, July 16, 2011 (UTC) I said stop because this could (and probably would) hit land. And y'all don't get it don't you. Have any of you experienced a 'cane in your lives? Ever??? I'm here to learn to forecast well, to learn how these huge forces work. I respect its might. That's why I don't go around saying something stupid and immature like "BECOME A CAT 5". This forum has gone way out of control when regulars left. The only reason I'm not leaving this place is because I love the format. We've got to stop treating these things like toys and start growing up. Seriously. Geez. I don't want to be the guy getting people in line cause it's stressful. So please, stop and act maturely. '''Darren23Edits|Mail21:29, July 16, 2011 (UTC) :If the storm goes east, then no,but let's hope that the storms produces beneficial rainfall to Mexico without too much deaths/damage. If the storm goes west, then we can root for it to become Cat 5 all we want. And Andrew come on IRC. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 21:43, July 16, 2011 (UTC) ::Yeah, Andrew444, we suggest you to come to the IRC, it's at ##hurricanes on freenode. - HurricaneSpin(Talk) 22:38, July 16, 2011 (UTC) :::I personally don´t see this thing developing as of yet, but I do agree with Darren that we should respect these forces of nature. If you said something like YIPEE or HIP HIP HORRAY when there is a big cat 5 storm actually bearing down and about to obliterate entire communities, Eric would terminate your account and IP adress without question. Hurricane Carrie of 1955 never affected land, but it killed 80 people when it sank a ship far out to sea. You don´t know if there is a ship full of innocent people out there in the path of (Dora), and if that ship became sank, it wouldn´t be fun to watch then now would it? I don´t know what will happen with this storm, but from now on, I suggest we stop being so immature and respect these awe-inspiring storms. No offense, but it really is starting to piss me off. I have to agree with Darren here. ''Ryan1000'' 21:41, July 17, 2011 (UTC) ::::While the odds of that are low, you are correct. However, the ships are monitered via radar from the CoastGgurad. When the ship goes missing, all the hip hip horray posts stop. That should be clear. Ill be honest, but I was being immature aobve. We need to be civil on here, there is nothing wrong with beign excited, we just need to keep it cool. No more outragoeus wishcasting, compache. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 23:01, July 17, 2011 (UTC) :::::There is wrong about being excited, but I don't want to get in to that. And YE, spellcheck. Back to the storm... Looks like Bret is gonna beat Dora here by a few days. I'm leaning on the HWRF solution which makes it make landfall, but it's too far away to judge precisely.Darren23Edits|Mail 23:27, July 17, 2011 (UTC) :::::::I can udestand pst like "Droa was epic, save the devastion" or "Grge was fun to track, but it killed all the devastions" or "Yay! We now have Cat 5 Jova, but I feel bad from the Bajains in the storm's path". Darren, can we work together for once. Thank you. Anyway, the TWO should be out soon. When it is, ill post it here. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 23:43, July 17, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::Up to 60%. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 07:58, July 18, 2011 (UTC) 90%. Surprisingly, no TCFA. '''Darren23Edits|Mail 11:44, July 18, 2011 (UTC) :TCFA Alert! Darren23Edits|Mail 13:04, July 18, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression Four-E ATCF has renumbered the invest and is now 04E. Intensity: 30/1006. I haven't tried to get the latest model data b/c of Bret but I'll try to get it in the next few minutes. Darren23Edits|Mail 13:04, July 18, 2011 (UTC) :Woah! Forecast peak is 105 knts? wtf? Any shot at Cat 4 or 5? YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 14:35, July 18, 2011 :(UTC) ::This season has been pretty good (except for the deaths from Beatriz). If this becomes hurricane Dora, 2011 will tie 1971 for the first 4 storms to become hurricanes. All we need is one more hurricane (Eugene) to beat 1971's record. Suprise11 14:47, July 18, 2011 (UTC) :::With the formation of 04E, we will be 4 days behind climatology, which isn't that bad, compared to last years god awful climatology stats. '''Darren23Edits|Mail 14:52, July 18, 2011 (UTC) ::::It surprises me to see how many hurricanes we are having. That might lead to an above-average ACE this year should this keep up. 2010 had a very rapid start, but a very silent end. Ryan100015:01, July 18, 2011 (UTC) :::::My forecast peak is 110 knts. After three days, I expect Dora the explorer to collapse like Calvin, Adrian, and Beatriz. I am forecasting a more southwesterly track than the NHc, but not as westerly as the GFDL/HWRF. Sorta like Hilary 05. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season '''T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 15:10, July 18, 2011 (UTC) It would be very hard to have an above average season in the inactive era of EPAC. Neutral season, sure. I still think ACE is gonna be below 94 this year. '''Darren23Edits|Mail 15:16, July 18, 2011 (UTC) :It would be hard, but not impossible either. In a sense, the season reminds me of 1998. We will likely go above 94, and have an ACE of around 100-110 at this rate like 1973, 1975, 1972, 1971, and 2005 were. YE[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 15:36, July 18, 2011 (UTC) ::Dora is expected to move quite fast over the next several days, but it will likely remain offshore of Mexico. The thing about this year is we have had so many hurricanes thus far in the season. 1990 and 1992 have the record in question with 16 hurricanes(8 of them consecutive in 1992), but they have never had this many to start out the season, in fact, no season since 1971 has done this. ''Ryan1000 15:43, July 18, 2011 (UTC) :::EPAC lovers, let me remind you something. 2009 was an El Nino. Even then, the ACE was average. 2008 was neutral, and the ACE was terrible. What I'm trying to remind all of you is, it is climatologically hard for this to be above average. And let me just turn your heads back to June 2010. Anomalies happen. Darren23Edits|Mail 17:29, July 18, 2011 (UTC) ::::You just want to bustcast this season, I know it. You just hate the attention it gets and you want to disappoint us EPAC lovers. Do you relize what position the EPAC is in. Ill put me in your shoes. It is 1984. The ATL just sucked in 1983 and the EPAC just had an epic season save the damage from Octave and Tico. What are you going to do and what do you want the 1984 AHS to be like? Anyway, 2005 had more than 94 ACE points so did 1973 and 1998 and 2000 and 2001. How many were below an ACE of 94, I only know of four, 2008, 1996, 1977, and 1999. BTW, if anyone wants to come on IRC, it is empty now except for me and ChanServ. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone]17:55, July 18, 2011 (UTC) I am not bustcasting this season. I'm putting reality back into this stupidity and lovefest. Facts are that we are in the active era, and that ain't changing anytime soon. La Nina-like conditions are still present. You might argue against that, but facts do you have against that? 4 hurricanes? So what! June 2009 was 300% above average ACE, and look where that crapfest ended up. The same adage applies to this basin: Don't judge June or July. Admit it, there are many factors against this being above average. Not saying it wont happen, just saying that there's a 95% chance it wont happen (CPC). '''Darren23Edits|Mail 18:36, July 18, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Dora Here we go!! YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 18:05, July 18, 2011 (UTC) :Say hello to Dora the Explorer. I love this season (And YE, please don't put things that are silly (in other words," the explorer" isn't that necessary)). Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 18:13, July 18, 2011 (UTC) ::I was going to remove it after 24 hours when the joke gets old. :P But, yeah this season is EPIC BOY, save the deaths from Beatriz. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 18:16, July 18, 2011 (UTC) :::Again, we're still 4 days behind climo, it's not that impressive. '''Darren23Edits|Mail 18:28, July 18, 2011 (UTC) ::::This is not the normal time of year for our 4th EPac hurricane though, that we´re certainly ahead of. YE, you forgot 2007 and 2010. Also, Darren, 2008 was La Nina, not neutral, but the ACE was still only a bit below average. 2007 was also La Nina, but the ACE of that year´s PHS was worse than any other season, except for 1977. I am not saying that this season will be above average, but, well, Dora will be more interesting to watch than Bret at least, Bret will be our first fail of the 2011 AHS. Ryan1000 18:36, July 18, 2011 (UTC) :::::Stop comparing this season to climo, thank you. You are ruing the fun for everyone. The peak of the EPAC is from July-September, which is the time of year you start to get a feel for this season is like. Active? Inactive? ect, ect. June 2009 was not an anomaly, but I believe you meant June w010 which was so active due to a 15 day relaxation in the shear due to positive MJO. And we are in late-July, not June so it's almost the month where you watch everything extremely closely in the EPAC (At least I do). YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 18:51, July 18, 2011 (UTC) ::::::No this year´s EPac season will not be hyperactive, but it´s certainly more interesting than the Atlantic hurricane season as of now. We have a typhoon about to make landfall in Japan and a major hurricane in the making here wheras the Atlantic sent out nothing more than an epic fail of a TS just now. ''Ryan1000'' 18:59, July 18, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::I never said it would be. I order an IRC meeting at 12:30 PT to settle this matter. Please join (##hurricanes). YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 19:06, July 18, 2011 (UTC) Excuse me? It's now a 50 kt tropical storm and um, I wonder what I'm seeing in long distance radar from Florida? I somehow also see it in the satellite imagery. Hmmm... I think that's an... EYE. My point is, it's not a fail. And Ryan, double check, 08 was neutral with Nina conditions prior to it. Hmmm, doesn't that sound an awful lot like this. And for now, Bret is much, much more interesting than that weak storm in EPAC. Again, take a gander at the floaters for Bret. '''Darren23Edits|Mail 19:10, July 18, 2011 (UTC) :My point is, Bret likely won´t become even a minimal hurricane, let alone affect land. The east coast of Florida and the Bahamas could get some good waves though. It´s not entirely certain Mexico will evade Dora though. And Darren, why are you saying 2008 was neutral when you said it was La Nina in the WAD page? Were you wrong then? Ryan1000 19:22, July 18, 2011 (UTC) ::You were the one that say 2008 was a La Nina, so just your facts. Do you realize that Dora has Cat 4/5 potential, Bret does not? I ma not saying bret is a fail, its just that Dora is better. Darren, instead of arguing, just go write/improve a WP article. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 19:24, July 18, 2011 (UTC) :::Ryan, just come on IRC. BTW, Dora is at 50 knts right now. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 01:43, July 19, 2011 (UTC) ::::I think it's a bless for SouCal that the waters adjaccent to the south tip of Baja California are cool enough to prevent Dora from Doing Beverly Hills. --88.102.101.245 06:30, July 19, 2011 (UTC) :::::Latest forecast takes Dora to a minimal Major hurricane, but likely(and fortunately) out to sea.Ryan1000' 15:29, July 19, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Dora (the Explorer) is at 70 mph, so a hurricane is very likely within 12-24 hours. And if Dora becomes one, the 2011 season is the first in 40 years to have the first four storms become hurricanes. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 18:46, July 19, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::::::::::::Do you realize that it will be a hurricane almost certainly at 2. YE[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season '''T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE C'''yclone] 19:10, July 19, 2011 (UTC)Pretty much... Dora´s now at 70mph/994hPa. It will likely become a minimal major hurricane further from there as it slowly heads out to sea. ''Ryan1000'' 22:55, July 19, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::: ::::::::::LOCATION...31.1N 74.4W ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES Err, that's Bret... HurricaneMaker99 12:51, July 20, 2011 (UTC) Cussing incident :::Now at 40 knts. It should also been noted that this is what Darren said on IRC. Log from 12:10 to 12:48 today " 12:10 -->| Darren23 (63bf6e23@wikipedia/Darren23) has joined ##hurricanes 12:11 Darren23 Order? 12:11 Darren23 are you fucking serious? 12:11 Darren23 YE, get rid of those EPAC glasses and stop being so damn biased 12:12 Darren23 You just want this fucking EPAC season to be your favorite fucking season ever, but guess what? Facts are facts. Don't ignore those facts, no matter how fucked up you screw them 12:14 YE chill Darren 12:14 Darren23 You think you have the power to order a fucking emergency meeting, well guess what, you don't 12:14 Darren23 You love EPAC so much you'll do anything to make it you're fucking way, well guess what, it won't 12:15 Darren23 "And we are in late-July, not June so it's almost the month where you watch everything extremely closely in the EPAC (At least I do)" ONLY YOU DO 12:16 Darren23 I am sick of the stupidity of EPAC casting 12:16 Darren23 there's a reason it's not appreciated in meteorlology circles 12:16 <--| Darren23 has left ##hurricanes 12:16 YE WP:CIVIL 12:27 =-= YE has changed the topic to “Welcome to ##hurricanes, this is a chat dedicated to hurricanes, but feel free to explore other topics as well | http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:Darren23” 12:32 =-= Mode ##hurricanes +o YE by ChanServ 12:32 =-= Mode ##hurricanes +b *!*@wikipedia/Darren23 by YE 12:32 =-= Mode ##hurricanes +m by YE 12:48 -->| atomic7732 (ae16d83c@gateway/web/freenode/ip.174.22.216.60) has joined ##hurricanes 12:48 =-= Mode ##hurricanes +v atomic7732 by YE" YE [[Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season|'T'ropical]] 20:58, July 18, 2011 (UTC) : O.O Talk about a TEMPER PROBLEM. That I never anticipated, nor wanted, to see. ''Ryan1000'' 23:21, July 18, 2011 (UTC) Hurricane Dora With the 8 p.m. advisory, we now have the fourth hurricane of the EPAC season. --HurricaneMaker99 02:53, July 20, 2011 (UTC) It's true... for the first time since 1971, the first four cyclones became hurricanes. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 12:30, July 20, 2011 (UTC) :Now at 80 knts. Will likely become Cat 4. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 15:03, July 20, 2011 (UTC) ::She's a Cat 2 now... 90 kts, 972 hPa... --HurricaneMaker99 17:47, July 20, 2011 (UTC) ::If Dora the Explorer becomes stronger than the Awesome Adrian, then my prediction in the betting pool will come true. Anywho, she could be a major hurricane by tonight. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:59, July 20, 2011 (UTC) : Major Hurricane Dora 100 kt, 968 hPa per the 2 p.m. advisory; Adrian, looks like you're not alone anymore... --HurricaneMaker99 20:51, July 20, 2011 (UTC) :Great... I leave for a day, and Dora´s now a major hurricane, in addition, Cindy unexpectedly formed in the NAtl as well. Well, thus far the first 3 storms in the north Atlantic(except for Arlene) are failures. For the record, Dora has a pretty good shot at becoming a cat 4 or 5, and if it does become a 5, then it will be the first time a D name became a category 5 in the eastern Pacific. The SHIPS model says there is a 46% chance Dora could explode into a category 5 over the next few days. 4-5 days from now, I can see it dying out.Ryan1000' 22:01, July 20, 2011 (UTC) : :And also, if Dora becomes a category 5, it will also be the first time the EPac went three years in a row with a C5 (Rick 2009, Celia 2010, and Dora 2011). Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 22:45, July 20, 2011 (UTC) ::I think cat. 5 is jumping the gun though. It likely won´t happen, nor am I personally expecting it. 'Ryan100023:26, July 20, 2011 (UTC) :::UPDATE:Expect the unexpected. Dora is now a category 4 storm, winds are now 135 mph and it´s pressure is down to 948. It´s just 2 mbars from Adrian and 5 mph too. Man, this is wild. ''Ryan100000:05, July 21, 2011 (UTC) ::::(edit conflict) Yeah, and the interim says that she is still undergoing rapid intensification, and that she's not supposed to begin weakening until Friday. At this rate, I'm expecting at least a strong Cat 4 out of this thing, and I honestly think she has a decent shot at becoming a Cat 5. Thank goodness she's staying out to sea! --HurricaneMaker99 00:09, July 21, 2011 (UTC) :::::Can we use knts please? mph are for meto-babies IMO. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 00:19, July 21, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Fine... If you want the correct windspeed, it´s 215 killometers per hour. That is the metric system, used by every big country worldwide except the U.S. Knots are an alternative form of measuring winds, but winds are truly (metric system truly) measured in kph if that´s how you want it. The NHC uses their own(unofficial)scheme of measuring winds.Ryan1000'' 01:33, July 21, 2011 (UTC) :::::: :::::: ::::::I am really shocked. This is Adrian all over again. Can this season be more incredible? The answer: yes. Dora (the Explorer) could become a Category 5, or "Eugene Krabs" can make us the first season since 1966 to have the first five tropical storms become hurricanes. Oh well, we'll just wait and see what this year wants to pull. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 02:21, July 21, 2011 (UTC) :::::::It is still at 115 knts, wtf.YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 03:20, July 21, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::OK, so maybe it'll be a little harder for Dora to reach Cat 5 than I thought; she's still supposed to strengthen, though. --HurricaneMaker99 03:27, July 21, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::: :::::::::Category 4 now, with 120 kn and 942 hPa, strongest hurricane in the EPac so far. I guess South Cal can be happy that water is to cool west of Baja California... --88.102.101.245 14:34, July 21, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::::Oh man, check the latest advisory - 135 kts, 929 hPa! If this thing gets just a tiny bit stronger, we'll have a Cat 5 in Dora. --HurricaneMaker9914:44, July 21, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::::155 mph... now what can I say to that? Man, this bitch is a teeny nick away from being a 5. Come on, Dora. You got this, girl.Ryan1000' 15:30, July 21, 2011 (UT ::::::::::::Just one small increase would make Dora Category 5.OWEN2011 16:22, July 21, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::::::::IT IS SO FRICKING CLOSE TO CAT 5. THIS IS INCREDIBLE, I AM AMAZED. I REALLY WANT THIS STORMS TO GET STRONGER INTO A CAT 5 AND GO OVER THE HUMP!!!!!!!!!! THIS IS AMAZING, I LOVE DORA. IT WAS SURE AN EXPLORER AND WE WILL NAME IT'S ARCHIVE DORA THE EXPLORER FOR SURE NOW. YE[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season '''T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE C'yclone] 16:57, July 21, 2011 (UTC) (outdent) Yeah, this is definitely my favorite of 2011 so far. Though I'm not entirely sure if I want Dora to strengthen any more; does anyone know if Socorro Island is populated? If I'm right, Dora will be passing rather close by there... --HurricaneMaker99 17:04, July 21, 2011 (UTC) Socorro Island is unpopulated, no one lives there. Heck, if it was populated, it would be hit with EPac hurricanes''every year. But man, this thing´s incredible! Wow! I never thought Dora would get this strong! And YE, when you do Archive Dora, don´t make it so people see it as “Dora the Explorer“, just so they see it as Dora. And don´t archive Calvin; he doesn´t really need an archive, just put him with the July archive. ''Ryan1000'' 17:12, July 21, 2011 (UTC) :Socorro Island has about a few thousand people if I recall correctly. It is a desert island more or less. It looks really close to cat 5, i do not know what RBT will say. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 17:19, July 21, 2011 (UTC) :This is so exciting! My first Category 5 I've ever tracked (in the EPac)! Also, two of my predictions in the EPAC betting pool came true: Dora being the strongest storm, and the highest windspeed being 155 mph. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:36, July 21, 2011 (UTC) ::A little more research, 250 people(staff, family, and friends) live on one of Socorro´s neighboring islands on a naval station in a small village. I wonder what will become of them when Dora strikes, if they have not already evacuated... ''Ryan1000'' 17:40, July 21, 2011 (UTC) :::It is not a Cat 5 yet, silly. And how do you know that Dora will be the strongest storms. It's only July, the mericle month of August is yet to come. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] :::::Down to 130 knts via RBT. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 19:22, July 21, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Confirmation from NHC now. It´s down to 130 kt/932 mbars. It looks like there is no ::::::category 5 Dora coming from us. Oh well. =( ''Ryan1000'' 21:33, July 21, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Either way, this Dora was the strongest Dora ever in the EPac. But it was very fun seeing her nearly reach Category 5 status. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 23:13, July 21, 2011 (UTC) Man, this thing is still getting knocked down. Latest advisory takes it further down, now to 120 kts and 935 mbars. Either way, it was great to watch. ''Ryan1000'' 02:36, July 22, 2011 (UTC) Hurricane Dora (second time) (sadly) :( :And now it's back down to Cat 3; 110 kts, 950 mbar per the 8 pm advisory. --HurricaneMaker99 03:05, July 22, 2011 (UTC) Dora the Explorer will long be remembered. Anywho, IDK about Boots and Isa, but Dora's no longer a major. She is only a Category 1, slowly dying away. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 16:48, July 22, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Dora (second time) (sadly) :( :I´d be baffled if Dora remains a hurricane on the next advisory; I mean, I can hardly see her eye on the sattelite imagery, and she´s really falling apart. The only other storm active out there is the invest in the Atlantic that could be future Don as it travels across the Caribbean. Cindy is falling apart, Bret´s gone, and Dora will be gone soon, say tomorrow. ''Ryan1000'' 17:10, July 22, 2011 (UTC) :Dora is no longer a hurricane. She is just a tropical storm, slowly dying away. The forecasts predict Dora to become a tropical depression by Sunday. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 01:35, July 23, 2011 (UTC) ::Now at 40 knts. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 17:53, July 23, 2011 (UTC) ::::It is still out there, at 35 knts. It is trying, not going away just yet. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 14:56, July 24, 2011 (UTC) :::::Despite how fast Dora weakened, it´s hanging on as a TS for quite some time. Cindy didn´t do this. Bret didn´t do this. Dora outlived both of them, and it´s still going to be alive until tonight. ''Ryan1000'' 15:17, July 24, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Ryan, I think there's a small chance Dora will keep exploring until tomorrow morning. The waters near the coast of Mexico and California aren't significantly colder than where Dora is now. The rate of weakening has slowed down and while it should speed up again, there is also a chance that the rate will not be fast enough to kill the storm by tonight. However, Dora is likely to be a tropical depression (or weaker) by the next advisory and dissipate late tonight. Suprise11 15:58, July 24, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::Since there is still deep convection, it will still be a TS at 2 IMO. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical][http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 16:27, July 24, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::Suprise11, the problem is Dora is continuing to move over drier and drier air. That´s why it´s going to continue weakening. It doesn´t have a very good chance of surviving into tomorrow. It doesn´t matter if the waters are not very cold. You have to keep in mind SST´s are only one factor to determine intensity. The shear isn´t exactly what i´m looking at; it´s the cold, dry air off of central Baja. That´s what will be killing Dora later today and it will likely be gone by tonight or later this afternoon. ''Ryan1000'' 16:50, July 24, 2011 (UTC) Post-Tropical cyclone Dora (sadly) :( Dora is gone, though I would have kept it as a TC.YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] :Does anyone on here think that Dora's remnants will bring rain to California? Suprise11 23:19, July 24, 2011 (UTC) ::Not so sure at this point. It´s remnants could recurve and bring some (much needed) rain to parts of the state, but overall effects will likely be too minor to note. It was a great storm to watch, but unfortunately it is now down and out. ''Ryan1000''' 00:39, July 25, 2011 (UTC) :::WP page up. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season '''T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 15:21, July 26, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::::